James M. Robinson, FSA, MAAA, Ph.D.
Director and Senior Scientist

Jim Robinson, FSA, MAAA, Ph.D., is Director and Senior Scientist at CHSRA with 35 years experience as an actuary and 25 years as a statistician.

Dr. Robinson was a member of the actuarial faculty of the University of Wisconsin School of Business for several years and has been involved in Society of Actuaries seminars designed to teach actuaries stochastic modeling techniques. His field of concentration over the past twenty-five years has been modeling Long Term Care service utilization and cost, including pricing of public and private LTC insurance programs.

Currently, Dr. Robinson is the Principal Investigator for a project to model Medicaid LTC provider reimbursement rates in Wisconsin and to analyze the implications of alternative policy changes. Dr. Robinson is also the Principal Investigator on contracts providing quality indicator information and analyses to the U.S. Dept. of Justice and quality monitors of nursing homes subject to Corporate Integrity Agreements. Dr. Robinson provides statistical advice on a variety of other quality improvement efforts.

Curriculum Vitae - Jim Robinson

Publications and Presentations

  • Authored Chapter 19, “Survival Models”, of  “Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science, Volume 1. Predictive Modeling Techniques”, Part of International Series on Actuarial Science, Edited by Frees, Derrig, and Meyers,  July 2014.
  • Gustafson, D. H., Quanbeck, A. R., Robinson, J. M., Ford II, J. H., Pulvermacher, A., French, M. T., McConnell, K. J., Batalden, P. B., Hoffman, K. A., & McCarty, D. (2013). “Which elements of improvement collaboratives are most effective? A cluster-randomized trial”, Addiction, 108(6):1145-57 PMCID: PMC3651751
  • Co-presented “Wisconsin Nursing Home Fall Prevention Initiative” at the FOCUS Conference, Wisconsin Dells, WI, November, 2014.
  • Co-presented “Failure of Care: A Proposal for Collaboration” at the Interactions between MFCUs and PI Units Symposium, National Advocacy Center (NAC) in Columbia, SC, June, 2011.
  • Presented “Elder Abuse: Measurement and Data, Using Nursing Home MDS and OSCAR Information” at the DOJ Elder Abuse Workshop, Washington, DC, February, 2008.
  • Rosenberg, Frees, Sung, Johnson, Robinson, J. “Predictive Modeling with Longitudinal Data: A Case Study of Wisconsin Nursing Homes” North American Actuarial Journal, Vol. 11, No. 3, July, 2007.
  • Co-authored “Differences Between Reported and Expected Nursing Hours in Wisconsin Nursing Facilities” for the INFORMS Annual Meeting in Pittsburgh, PA, November, 2006.
  • Co-authored “Differences Between Reported and Expected Nursing Hours in Wisconsin Nursing Facilities” for the Gerontological Society of America Annual Meeting in Dallas, TX, November, 2006.
  • Co-presented “Monitoring Quality of Care Using Resident Assessment Data: Opportunities and Challenges” for the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Colloquium in Madison, WI, February, 2006.
  • Co-Authored “Addressing Small Denominator Problem in Long Term Care Quality Control and Improvement” for the INFORMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans, LA, November, 2005.
  • Co-authored “Health Deficiencies as a Measure of Nursing Home Quality” for the INFORMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans, LA, November, 2005.
  • Presented “Quality of LTC Services - an Insurer’s Perspective” at Society of Actuaries 2005 Annual Meeting in New York, NY, November 15, 2005.
  • Karon, S. and Robinson, J.  “Case-Mix-Adjusted Comparison of the Functional Status of Admissions to Wisconsin Long Term Care Programs” presented at Gerontological Society of America 57th Annual Scientific Meeting, Washington D.C., November 19-23, 2004.
  • Karon, S. and Robinson, J.  “Impact of Location on Assessment of Functional Status” presented at Gerontological Society of America 57th Annual Scientific Meeting, Washington D.C., November 19-23, 2004.
  • Presented “Case-Mix-Adjusted Comparison of the Functional Status of Admissions to Wisconsin Long Term Care Programs” at the Gerontological Society of America 57th Annual Scientific Meeting, Washington D.C., November, 2004.
  • Presented “Credibility Theory for LTC Actuaries” at Society of Actuaries 2004 Spring Meeting in Anaheim, CA, May 19, 2004.
  • Robinson, J.  “The AAA Practice Note in Practice – Part 2.”  Society of Actuaries LTC Insurance Section Newsletter, December, 2003.
  • Presented “American Academy of Actuaries LTC Insurance Practice Note in Practice” with Amy Pahl and Darrell Spell in Vancouver, BC, June, 2003.
  • Robinson, J.  “The AAA Practice Note in Practice – Part 1.”  Society of Actuaries LTC Insurance Section Newsletter, April, 2003.
  • Rudolph, B.A., Booske, B.C., and Robinson, J.M. (2002) Final Report on Case Mix Adjustment 2000 CAHPS Medicare Disenrollment Reasons Survey. Project Report under CMS contract no. 500-95-0061.
  • Presented “Sources of Variation in PACE Site Financial Risk – Part 2” at the 2002 National PACE Association Conference in Quincy, MA, October, 2002.
  • Presented “Dissecting the Cost of Product Design Decisions” with Amy Pahl and Claude Thau at the 2002 LOMA-LIMRA-Milliman Disability Income & Long-Term Care Insurers’ Forum in Orlando, FL, September, 2002.
  • Robinson, J.  “The Role of Actuaries in Non-Traditional Long Term Care Insurance.”  The Actuarial Digest, October, 2001.
  • Presented “The Next Frontier: Measuring Provider Quality” with Robert Bua at the 15th Private Long Term Care Insurance Conference in Miami, FL, August, 2001.
  • Presented “Sources of Actuarial Data” with A. Schmitz, at the 2001 Intercompany LTC Insurance Conference in Miami, FL, January 22, 2001.
  • Robinson, J.  “Credibility Theory for the Health Insurance Actuary: The Need for an Inter-Company Experience Study.”  Society of Actuaries LTC Insurance Section Newsletter, December, 2000.
  • Presented “Credibility Theory for the Health Insurance Actuary” at the University of WI actuarial seminar, November, 2000.
  • Robinson, J. and S. Karon.  “Modeling Medicare Costs for PACE Populations.”  Health Care Financing Review, Spring 2000.
  • Harrington, C., Zimmerman, D., Karon, S.L., Robinson, J., and Beutel, P., "Nursing Home Staffing and its Relationship to Deficiencies," The Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 55B(5):S1-S10, 2000.
  • Presented “Home Care Assessment, Quality Indicators, Classification and Medicare Payment” with Philip Cotterill, at the 2000 Case Mix Reimbursement and Quality Assurance Conference in Madison, WI, May, 2000.
  • Presented “Medicare Upper Payment Limit” at the 2000 Case Mix Reimbursement and Quality Assurance Conference in Madison, WI, May, 2000.
  • Presented “Nursing Home Health Status and Care Setting Transitions” with Greg Arling at the 2000 Case Mix Reimbursement and Quality Assurance Conference in Madison, WI, May, 2000.
  • Authored case studies in appendix of “Introduction to Credibility Theory, 3rd Edition,” by Thomas Herzog, Actex Publications, 1999.
  • Presented “The Program for All-Inclusive Care of the Elderly (PACE):  Eligibility and Medicare Cost Analysis” with S. Karon, July 20, 1999.
  • Instructor for “Society of Actuaries Credibility Theory Seminar,” in Chicago, IL, November, 1998.
  • Presented to the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services.  July 20, 1999.Presented “A Clinician's Introduction to Resource Utilization Groups (RUG's) and Case Mix Reimbursement” at the 1998 National Symposium on the Quality of Life in America's Nursing Homes" Madison, WI, May 19-20, 1998.
  • Presented “The Medicare SNF Prospective Payment System (PPS) - How Will It Work?” at the 1998 National Symposium on the Quality of Life in America's Nursing Homes" Madison, WI, May 19-20, 1998.
  • Chaired “Modeling the Impact of Implementing a Case Mix Reimbursement System,” Session T5, and follow-up Session T11 at the 1997 National Case Mix Reimbursement and Quality Assurance Conference in Cleveland, OH, September 21-24, 1997.
  • Presented “Modeling Long-Term Care Using a Multi-State Approach,” with Bruce Jones at the Society of Actuaries Spring Meeting in Montreal, June 19-20, 1997.
  • Presented “Case Mix: An Overview,” with S. Karon.  Presentation to the Wisconsin Association of Homes and Services for the Aging Health Issues Committee, Madison, WI, February 26, 1997.
  • Presented "A Long-Term Care Status Transition Model," at the 1996 Bowles Symposium on The Old-Age Crisis: Actuarial Opportunities, September 1996, at Georgia State University.
  • Presented "Using Data Effectively to Establish Capitation Rates," at the National Association of Home Care Regional Conferences, 1996.
  • Presented "Analysis and Extension of the Smoothness Component of Whittaker-Henderson Graduation," at the 1992 Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association and the Biometric Society, August, 1992, in Boston.
  • Presented "Long-Term Care Valuation Issues: The Challenges - Theoretical and Practical," at the Society of Actuaries Regional Meeting, April, 1992, in Las Vegas.
  • Presented "Non-Life Insurance Claim Incurral, Accrual and Reporting," at the 1990 Actuarial Research Conference, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada, August, 1990.
  • Dissertation "Modeling, Inference and Forecasting Techniques for the Analysis of Non-Life Insurance Claim Reserves," 1989, Univ. of Wisconsin.
  • Presented "The Kalman Filter From A Bayesian Point Of View," at the Regional Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, April, 1989, in Chicago.
  • Presented "A Stochastic Model for Non-Life Insurance Claim Incurral, Accrual and Reporting," at the 1988 Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association and the Biometric Society, August 23, 1988, in New Orleans.
  • Discussion of "Measuring The Interest Rate Risk," by Paul R. Milgrom, Transactions of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 37, 1985, p. 295-297.
  • Discussion of "Maximum Likelihood Alternatives To Actuarial Estimators of Mortality Rates," by James D. Broffitt, Transactions of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 36, 1984, p. 125-138.